CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-03-30T12:24:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the Forecast Discussion below).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Mar 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M2/1n flare (R1-Minor
radio blackout) with an associated Type-II radio sweep (estimated at 879
km/s) from Region 2017 (N10W49, Dac/beta-gamma) at 30/1155 UTC.  It also
produced a C7 flare at 30/2115 UTC with no optical counterpart reported.

Region 2017 remained the most productive and threatening region on the
disk but lost its delta magnetic configuration this period.  Region 2021
(S15E22, Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited moderate growth this period.  Region
2020 (S13W11, Bxo/beta), a plage region over the last few days,
redeveloped spots late this period but remained unproductive.  New
Regions 2025 (S24W20, Dro/beta) and 2026 (S11E76, Bxo/beta) were
numbered this period and so far six low-level C-class flares have been
attributed to Region 2026 as it continues to rotate onto the disk.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M-flare detailed above
was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 30/1224
UTC off the northwest limb.  WSA-ENLIL model output and forecaster
analysis suggests that this CME will arrive at Earth as a glancing blow
early-to-mid day three (02 Apr).  See the 'Geospace Forecast' portion
below for expected impacts.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) levels over the next three days (31 Mar - 02 Apr) with
a slight chance for X-class (R3 or greater) flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly above background levels (below S1)
this period due to the 29 Mar X-flare.  Proton flux values reached a
maximum of 3.2 pfu at 29/2230 UTC and have steadily decreased since.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
levels for the next three days (31 Mar - 02 Apr).  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to be at or near background levels over the
next three days (31 Mar - 02 Apr) with a slight chance for an additional
particle enhancement if additional significant flare activity occurs.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels.  Solar wind speeds were
steady in the 380-480 km/s range, total field strength values were
steady between 1-4 nT, and Bz reached a maximum southward component of
-2 nT.  Phi data was predominately steady in a negative (toward) sector
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at background levels for day
one (31 Mar) and through most of day two (01 Apr) under a nominal solar
wind environment.  Solar wind speed and density values are expected to
become enhanced late on day one through day two (01 - 02 Apr) with the
arrival of a series of CMEs.  See the 'Geospace Forecast' portion below
for additional information.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet this period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet levels for day
one (31 Mar) through midday on day two (01 Apr).  A pair of CMEs from 28
Mar are expected to arrive mid-to-late day two (01 Apr), increasing the
geomagnetic field to unsettled to active levels.  The geomagnetic field
is expected to further increase early-to-mid day three (02 Apr)
(unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels) due to continued
influence from the 28 Mar CMEs in addition to the anticipated arrival of
a pair of CMEs from 29 Mar and a single CME from 30 Mar.

--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Mar 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2014

            Mar 31     Apr 01     Apr 02
00-03UT        2          2          4     
03-06UT        1          2          4     
06-09UT        1          2          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          1          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          2          4     
15-18UT        1          3          3     
18-21UT        2          4          3     
21-00UT        2          4          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on 02
April in response to the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from
28 and 29 March.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2014

              Mar 31  Apr 01  Apr 02
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms, particularly from Region 2017.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2014

              Mar 31        Apr 01        Apr 02
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are likely,
particularly from Region 2017.

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the Product Subscription Site. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact SWPC Help.

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy